Dynamics of Russians’ ideas about the civilizational vector of the country’s development (an empirical analysis)

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Abstract

Based on the materials of an all-Russian representative survey by the Institute of Sociology of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences in April 2024, we analyze the polar groups of Russians differing in their ideas about whether Russia is a part of Europe, or it should live by the same rules as Western countries and be oriented towards partnership with them. The study showed that the ratio of the consistent supporters’ of Russia’s independent path of development to those oriented to the pro-Western model of its development approximates 75% to 25%. The dynamics of these groups numbers demonstrate a growing ideological polarization among the mass strata of the population about the perceiving the “collective West” countries. The divergence of views in these polar groups is clearly manifest on all acute topical social issues – in assessments of the dominance of external or internal threats, the consequences of Western sanctions for Russia, the attitude to the Special military operation (SMO), as well as civilizational proximity of the Russian Federation to the-West-vs-the-East. Convictions of the supporters of the specific development vector are more consistent, while the internal structure of the group oriented towards the Western model for Russia’s development remains highly heterogeneous.

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About the authors

Pavel E. Sushko

Institute of Sociology of FCTAS RAS

Author for correspondence.
Email: sushkope@mail.ru

Cand. Sci. (Soc.), Leading Researcher

Russian Federation, Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. The share of Russians with different indicators of the Index of perception of Russia's place in the world in dynamics, 2014-2024, % of the array as a whole Note. It is important to note that the groups identified on the basis of Russians' ideas about its possible civilizational vector are not an identification characteristic of specific individuals, but reflect only their opinion about possible directions of civilizational development. The thesis about the relationship and the specific contribution of these ideas to individual ideological and political identity (if any) requires a separate verification in a separate study.

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3. Fig. 2. The attitude of Russians to the consequences of sanctions in groups with different indicators of the Index of perception of Russia's place in the world, 2014/2024, % indicated from the corresponding groups Note. The question about the consequences of sanctions was formulated in the questionnaire as follows: "What is your attitude to the sanctions that the West has imposed against Russia?"

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4. 3. Dynamics of estimates of Russia's civilizational proximity to Western or Eastern countries in terms of cultural component, economy and national character, 2007-2024, % of the total Note. The question in the questionnaire was formulated as follows: "Which groups of countries do you think Russia is closer to?" and assumed the use of a uniform hierarchical scale from 1 to 11 points to fix the respondents' position. The use of such a scale in this case is justified by the fact that such a visual scheme significantly reduces the risks of underestimating/overestimating the subjective position. In particular, the noted methodological thesis was substantiated in an article on the influence of the graphical arrangement of rating scales on the distribution in the study of subjective stratification [Lenzner, Hohne, 2021]. At the same time, for the convenience of interpretation and clarity of conclusions, the 11-point scale used was regrouped into a 3-point scale by combining positions from 1 to 4 – identifying our country with Western specifics in terms of culture, eco

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5. Figure 4. Dynamics of the consistency of Russians' assessments between the scales of Russia's civilizational proximity to the countries of the West or East, 2007-2024, % in the array as a whole Note. The method of summing indicators is not applicable to the presented data, since each column corresponds to a percentage covering the proportion of the population who chose the appropriate identification on at least two of the three possible scales (culture, economy and national character).

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