Dangerous Youth: why Do Political Uprisings Take an Unarmed Form?

Мұқаба

Дәйексөз келтіру

Толық мәтін

Ашық рұқсат Ашық рұқсат
Рұқсат жабық Рұқсат берілді
Рұқсат жабық Тек жазылушылар үшін

Аннотация

Quantitative cross-national studies of the factors of violent (armed) versus nonviolent (unarmed) revolutionary events are very few, and they do not pay enough attention to such a powerful factor as a high proportion of young people in the total adult population – the “youth bulge”. We assume that (1) revolutionary uprisings in countries with a greater youth bulge will be significantly more likely to take armed form than in countries with a significantly lower value of this indicator. We also assume that (2) the higher the median age of the population, the higher the likelihood for a revolutionary uprising take an unarmed character. In general, both of our hypotheses are fully confirmed. Thus, there is a reason to believe that the significant increase in the median age of the population observed at the global level in the recent decades could have contributed to a noticeable decrease in the share of armed revolutionary uprisings and an increase in the share of unarmed ones.

Авторлар туралы

Vadim Ustyzhanin

National Research University “Higher School of Economics”; Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Moscow, Russia

Yu. Zinkina

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Lomonosov Moscow State University

Moscow, Russia

Andrey Korotayev

National Research University “Higher School of Economics”; Institute for African Studies RAS

Moscow, Russia

Әдебиет тізімі

  1. Вишневский А.Г. Демографическая революция. М.: Статистика, 1976.
  2. Вишневский А.Г. Демографический переход и гипотеза гиперболического роста населения // Демографическое обозрение. 2018. № 1(5). C. 64–105.
  3. Голдстоун Дж.А. К теории революции четвертого поколения // Философско-литературный журнал Логос. 2006. № 5. C. 58–103.
  4. Голдстоун Дж.А., Гринин Л.Е., Коротаев А.В. Волны революций XXI столетия // Полис. Политические исследования. 2022. № 4. С. 108–119.
  5. Зубок Ю.А., Чупров В.И. Молодежный экстремизм. Сущность и особенности проявления // Социологические исследования. 2008. №5(289). С. 37–46.
  6. Коротаев А.В., Малков А.С., Бурова А.Н. и др. Ловушка на выходе из ловушки. Математическое моделирование социально-политической дестабилизации в странах мир-системной периферии и события арабской весны 2011 г. // Моделирование и прогнозирование глобального, регионального и национального развития / Отв. ред. А. А. Акаев. М.: Либроком/URSS, 2012. С. 210–276.
  7. Нефедов С.А. «Молодежный бугор» и первая русская революция // Социологические исследования. 2015. № 7(375). С. 140–147.
  8. Устюжанин В.В., Гринин Л.Е., Медведев И.А., Коротаев А.В. Образование и революции (Почему революционные выступления принимают вооруженную или невооруженную форму?) // Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2022. № 1(104). С. 50–71.
  9. Устюжанин В.В., Коротаев А.В. Революции и демократия. Почему революционные выступления принимают вооруженную или невооруженную форму? // Вестник Томского госуниверситета. Философия. Социология. Политология. 2022. № 66. С. 198–210.
  10. Butcher C., Svensson I. Manufacturing Dissent // Journal of Conflict Resolution. 2016. No. 60(2). P. 311–339.
  11. Chenoweth E., Shay C.W. NAVCO 1.3 Codebook. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Dataverse, 2020.
  12. Chesnais J.-K. The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992.
  13. Choucri N. Population dynamics and international violence: Propositions, insights, and evidence. London: Lexington, 1974.
  14. Cincotta R. Demography as early warning: Gauging future political transitions in the age-structural time domain // Journal of Intelligence Analysis. 2015. No. 22(2). P. 129–148.
  15. Cincotta R., Weber H. Youthful Age Structures and the Risks of Revolutionary and Separatist Conflicts // Global Political Demography: Comparative Analyses of the Politics of Population Change in All World Regions / Ed. by Goerres A., Vanhuysse P. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2021. P. 57–92.
  16. Collier P., Hoeffler A. Greed and grievance in civil war // Oxford Economic Papers. 2004. No. 56(4). P. 563–595.
  17. Coppedge M., Gerring J., Knutsen C.H. et al. V-Dem [Country–Year/Country–Date] Dataset v 12. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project, 2022.
  18. Dahlum S. Students in the Streets: Education and Nonviolent Protest // Comparative Political Studies. 2019. No. 52(2). P. 277–309.
  19. Dyson T. On Demographic and Democratic Transitions // Population and Development Review. 2012. No. 38(1). P. 83–102.
  20. Goldstone J.A. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1991.
  21. Goldstone J.A. Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict // Journal of International Affairs. 2002. 56(1). P. 3–21.
  22. How freedom is won: from civic resistance to durable democracy. Ed. by Ackerman P., Karatnycky A. Washington DC: Freedom House, 2005.
  23. Huntington S.P. ‘So, are civilizations at war?’, Interview with Samuel P. Huntington by Michael Steinberger, The Observer, Sunday October 21, 2001.
  24. Johnstad P.G. Nonviolent democratization: a sensitivity analysis of how transition mode and violence impact the durability of democracy // Peace & Change. 2010. No. 35(3). P. 464–482.
  25. Kadivar M.A., Ketchley N. Sticks, Stones, and Molotov Cocktails: Unarmed Collective Violence and Democratization // Socius. 2018. No. 4. P. 1–16.
  26. Kheng C. B. The communist insurgency in Malaysia, 1948–90: Contesting the nation-state and social change // New Zealand Journal of Asian Studies. 2009. No. 11(1). P.132–152.
  27. Kim T., Sciubba J.D. The effect of age structure on the abrogation of military alliances // International Interactions. 2015. No. 41(2). P. 279–308.
  28. Korotayev A., Goldstone J. A., Zinkina J. Phases of global demographic transition correlate with phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015. No. 95. P. 163–169.
  29. Korotayev A., Zinkina J. Egypt’s 2011 Revolution. A Demographic Structural Analysis // Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century: The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change. Ed. by Goldstone J. A., Grinin L., Korotayev A. Cham: Springer, 2022. P. 651–683.
  30. Mesquida C.G., Wiener N.I. Male age composition and severity of conflicts // Politics and the life sciences. 1991. No. 18(2). P. 181–189.
  31. Mirkin B. Arab Spring: Demographics in a region in transition. New York: UNDP, 2013.
  32. Moller H. Youth as a Force in the Modern World // Comparative Studies in Society and History. 1968. No. 10(3). P. 237–260.
  33. Staveteig S. The young and the restless: Population age structure and civil war // Environmental Change and Security Program Report. 2005. No. 11. P. 12–19.
  34. UN Population Division Median Age of Population. World Population Prospects Database. 2021c. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Files/ (дата обращения: 05.08.2021).
  35. UN Population Division Population by Age Groups – Both Sexes. World Population Prospects Database. 2021b. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Files/ (дата обращения: 05.08.2021).
  36. UN Population Division. World Population Prospects Database. 2021а. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/ (дата доступа 05.08.2021).
  37. Urdal H. The devil in the demographics: the effect of youth bulges on domestic armed conflict, 1950–2000 // Social Development Papers. 2004. No. 14. P. 1-25.
  38. Urdal H. A clash of generations? Youth bulges and political violence // International studies quarterly. 2006. No. 50(3). P. 607–629.
  39. Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A. Revolutions and Democracy. Can Democracies Prevent Revolutionary Armed Violence? // Comparative Sociology. 2023. No. 22(1). P. 95–137.
  40. Weber H. Demography and democracy: the impact of youth cohort size on democratic stability in the world // Democratization. 2013. No. 20(2). P. 335–357.
  41. Weber H. Age structure and political violence: a re-assessment of the “youth bulge“ hypothesis // International Interactions. 2019. No 45(1). P. 80–112.

Қосымша файлдар

Қосымша файлдар
Әрекет
1. JATS XML
Жүктеу

© Russian Academy of Sciences, 2023